MODEL VERDICT
Contango Ore, Inc. (CTGO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $23.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $22.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $24.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $24.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $23.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $23.88 | +3.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $1.28 | -94.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $1.25 | -94.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.88 | -35.7% | 100% | 52 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 62.83 | 11.63 | 4.63 | 226.12 | 94.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 62.83 | 11.63 | 4.63 | 226.12 | 94.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTGO's fair value at $14.88 vs the current price of $23.13, implying -35.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.41 (P10) to $26.29 (P90), with a median of $22.76.
CTGO's current P/E of -6.6x compares to the industry median of 20.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -133.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover CTGO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $32.00 — $32.00), implying +38.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (3), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CTGO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.