MODEL VERDICT
CytomX Therapeutics, Inc. (CTMX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $4.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $4.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $4.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $4.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $4.61 | +10.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $4.69 | +12.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.25 | +1.7% | 100% | 55 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 4.27 | 4.42 | 0.63 | 7.71 | 3.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTMX's fair value at $4.25 vs the current price of $4.18, implying +1.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 55/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.32 (P10) to $6.07 (P90), with a median of $4.19.
CTMX's current P/E of -27.9x compares to the industry median of 18.3x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -252.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover CTMX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.60 (range: $10.00 — $16.00), implying +177.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 55/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CTMX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.