MODEL VERDICT
CytomX Therapeutics, Inc. (CTMX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.35 | Pending | +31.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $6.58 | +22.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $8.29 | +54.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $7.64 | +42.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $13.25 | +146.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $13.67 | +154.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $10.09 | +87.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.80 | +63.8% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 4.68 | 4.42 | 0.63 | 10.57 | 3.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTMX's fair value at $8.80 vs the current price of $5.37, implying +63.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.38 (P10) to $11.50 (P90), with a median of $8.32.
CTMX's current P/E of 14.1x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -35.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover CTMX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying +86.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CTMX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.