MODEL VERDICT
CTS Corporation (CTS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $57.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $56.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $55.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $54.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $54.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $79.97 | +40.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $90.62 | +59.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $81.56 | +43.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $124.35 | +118.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $97.15 | +70.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $124.13 | +117.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $84.64 | +48.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $95.17 | +67.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $90.05 | +58.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $89.38 | +56.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $114.97 | +101.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.18 | +47.7% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $51 | $56 | $60 | $65 | $70 |
| Conservative (10%) | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $72 |
| Base Case (15.6%) | $56 | $61 | $66 | $71 | $76 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $58 | $64 | $69 | $74 | $80 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.25 | 25.16 | 19.58 | 32.39 | 4.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.20 | 17.69 | 14.66 | 22.93 | 3.45 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.30 | 12.03 | 9.89 | 15.28 | 2.04 |
| P/FCF | 17.66 | 18.06 | 11.89 | 23.28 | 3.67 |
| P/FFO | 15.88 | 15.91 | 12.80 | 18.23 | 2.17 |
| P/TBV | 5.78 | 5.17 | 4.18 | 9.69 | 1.91 |
| P/AFFO | 20.53 | 20.77 | 15.20 | 25.45 | 4.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.59 | 2.56 | 2.32 | 3.05 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.46 | 2.36 | 2.12 | 3.14 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTS's fair value at $84.18 vs the current price of $57.00, implying +47.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $73.24 (P10) to $93.26 (P90), with a median of $82.86.
CTS's current P/E of 26.0x compares to the industry median of 37.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -30.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover CTS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CTS trades at the 940th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CTS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4200.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.