MODEL VERDICT
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation (CTSH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $52.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $55.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $61.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $60.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $57.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $62.83 | +19.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $69.02 | +31.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $66.27 | +26.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $62.92 | +20.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $72.79 | +38.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $54.44 | +3.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 10 industry peers | $58.77 | +12.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $54.91 | +4.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $55.54 | +5.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $66.25 | +26.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $62.92 | +20.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.33 | +36.0% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $38 | $48 | $57 | $67 | $76 |
| Conservative (8%) | $39 | $49 | $59 | $69 | $79 |
| Base Case (12.1%) | $41 | $51 | $61 | $71 | $82 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $42 | $53 | $63 | $74 | $85 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.84 | 18.24 | 12.97 | 31.89 | 5.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.74 | 13.03 | 9.56 | 20.48 | 3.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.65 | 11.34 | 8.21 | 16.24 | 2.64 |
| P/FCF | 17.35 | 16.48 | 13.27 | 21.14 | 3.03 |
| P/FFO | 15.34 | 14.39 | 10.38 | 22.72 | 3.83 |
| P/TBV | 6.96 | 6.36 | 5.47 | 9.32 | 1.57 |
| P/AFFO | 17.81 | 16.13 | 11.75 | 28.55 | 5.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.11 | 2.88 | 2.41 | 4.09 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.08 | 1.97 | 1.53 | 2.66 | 0.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTSH's fair value at $71.33 vs the current price of $52.43, implying +36.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.93 (P10) to $79.49 (P90), with a median of $72.68.
CTSH's current P/E of 11.5x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -20.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.8x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
51 analysts cover CTSH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $83.33 (range: $56.00 — $107.00), implying +58.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (25), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CTSH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7800.0% to approximately $93. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.