MODEL VERDICT
Calavo Growers, Inc. (CVGW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $28.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $26.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $27.49 | -2.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $18.47 | -34.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $33.37 | +18.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $23.06 | -18.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $27.20 | -3.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $33.19 | +18.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $30.40 | +8.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $22.79 | -18.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $32.72 | +16.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $24.71 | -12.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.02 | +28.1% | 100% | 79 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 149.89 | 33.83 | 13.70 | 636.71 | 272.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.01 | 19.27 | 12.98 | 111.59 | 35.40 |
| P/FCF | 83.75 | 24.97 | 12.83 | 350.11 | 132.04 |
| P/FFO | 113.22 | 50.12 | 14.27 | 461.22 | 157.53 |
| P/TBV | 3.60 | 2.75 | 1.96 | 5.97 | 1.61 |
| P/AFFO | 253.08 | 59.08 | 15.49 | 878.66 | 417.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.22 | 2.48 | 1.87 | 5.58 | 1.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.83 | 0.71 | 0.44 | 1.33 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVGW's fair value at $36.02 vs the current price of $28.11, implying +28.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.17 (P10) to $58.74 (P90), with a median of $40.54.
CVGW's current P/E of 25.3x compares to the industry median of 30.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -15.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
10 analysts cover CVGW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.00 (range: $27.00 — $27.00), implying -3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 2.9% is 2.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (0.5%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$5. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CVGW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (0.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8240.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.