MODEL VERDICT
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $33.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $34.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $30.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $28.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $28.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $62.61 | +85.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $55.58 | +65.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $13.68 | -59.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $17.67 | -47.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $63.77 | +89.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $62.43 | +85.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $13.65 | -59.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.67 | +17.8% | 100% | 59 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 105× | 115× | 125× (Current) | 135× | 145× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
| Conservative (7%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.45 | 12.94 | 4.94 | 81.63 | 29.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.87 | 14.33 | 8.06 | 76.74 | 26.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.06 | 6.12 | 4.40 | 7.74 | 1.31 |
| P/FFO | 5.37 | 5.09 | 2.71 | 11.29 | 2.88 |
| P/TBV | 1.96 | 1.98 | 0.87 | 2.81 | 0.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.36 | 0.69 | 1.72 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.27 | 0.67 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVLG's fair value at $39.67 vs the current price of $33.68, implying +17.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.10 (P10) to $42.65 (P90), with a median of $38.85.
CVLG's current P/E of 124.7x compares to the industry median of 50.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +146.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.5x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover CVLG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CVLG trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CVLG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1370.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.