MODEL VERDICT
CVS Health Corporation (CVS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $79.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $76.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $78.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $75.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $80.30 | Below threshold | -5.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $30.68 | -61.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $153.06 | +91.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $117.75 | +47.4% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $155.20 | +94.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $30.04 | -62.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $557.57 | +597.8% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $31.51 | -60.6% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $87.99 | +10.1% | 100% | 76 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 52× | 57× (Current) | 62× | 67× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $67 | $74 | $81 | $88 | $95 |
| Conservative (5%) | $69 | $76 | $83 | $90 | $98 |
| Base Case (-23.9%) | $50 | $55 | $60 | $66 | $71 |
| Bull Case (-32%) | $44 | $49 | $54 | $58 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.09 | 14.62 | 12.20 | 57.09 | 16.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.33 | 14.98 | 12.51 | 35.38 | 8.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.20 | 11.02 | 9.10 | 14.87 | 1.98 |
| P/FCF | 9.37 | 9.17 | 6.68 | 12.92 | 1.86 |
| P/FFO | 10.28 | 8.81 | 6.15 | 15.82 | 3.64 |
| P/AFFO | 14.84 | 11.34 | 8.81 | 28.48 | 7.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.39 | 1.34 | 0.75 | 1.82 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.15 | 0.47 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVS's fair value at $87.99 vs the current price of $79.90, implying +10.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $87.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $75.24 (P10) to $111.79 (P90), with a median of $93.10.
CVS's current P/E of 57.5x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +160.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover CVS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $94.92 (range: $90.00 — $103.00), implying +18.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (32), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CVS trades at the 8330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CVS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (1.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6610.0% to approximately $133. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.