MODEL VERDICT
Chevron Corporation (CVX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $186.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $183.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $183.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $182.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $162.11 | Below threshold | +12.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $86.15 | -53.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $94.01 | -49.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $150.55 | -19.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $104.41 | -44.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $156.35 | -16.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $111.13 | -40.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $143.16 | -23.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $151.16 | -19.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $109.94 | -41.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $152.98 | -18.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $107.23 | -42.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $140.94 | -24.5% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $172 | $195 | $218 | $240 | $263 |
| Conservative (29%) | $188 | $213 | $238 | $263 | $288 |
| Base Case (44.6%) | $211 | $239 | $267 | $295 | $323 |
| Bull Case (60%) | $233 | $265 | $296 | $327 | $358 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.10 | 14.24 | 9.82 | 78.25 | 26.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.73 | 10.47 | 7.05 | 39.42 | 12.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.36 | 7.04 | 5.69 | 19.18 | 5.16 |
| P/FCF | 25.07 | 14.18 | 9.26 | 94.17 | 30.63 |
| P/FFO | 8.41 | 7.17 | 6.21 | 13.56 | 2.75 |
| P/TBV | 1.67 | 1.66 | 1.23 | 2.24 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 20.84 | 12.04 | 8.64 | 57.91 | 18.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.62 | 1.61 | 1.19 | 2.17 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.31 | 1.67 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVX's fair value at $140.94 vs the current price of $186.75, implying -24.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $140.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $108.47 (P10) to $172.70 (P90), with a median of $137.94.
CVX's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +24.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.1x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
51 analysts cover CVX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $184.54 (range: $160.00 — $212.00), implying -1.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (32), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CVX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10630.0% to approximately $385. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.