MODEL VERDICT
Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $190.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $185.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $184.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $184.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $188.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $127.22 | -33.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $111.25 | -41.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $173.64 | -8.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $116.66 | -38.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $238.27 | +25.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $121.50 | -36.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $515.13 | +170.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $125.95 | -33.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $115.95 | -39.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $188.57 | -1.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $116.66 | -38.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $173.09 | -9.2% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $183 | $206 | $229 | $252 | $275 |
| Conservative (29%) | $201 | $226 | $251 | $276 | $301 |
| Base Case (44.6%) | $225 | $253 | $281 | $309 | $337 |
| Bull Case (60%) | $249 | $280 | $311 | $342 | $373 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.10 | 14.24 | 9.82 | 78.25 | 26.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.73 | 10.47 | 7.05 | 39.42 | 12.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.36 | 7.04 | 5.69 | 19.18 | 5.16 |
| P/FCF | 25.07 | 14.18 | 9.26 | 94.17 | 30.63 |
| P/FFO | 8.41 | 7.17 | 6.21 | 13.56 | 2.75 |
| P/TBV | 1.67 | 1.66 | 1.23 | 2.24 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 20.84 | 12.04 | 8.64 | 57.91 | 18.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.62 | 1.61 | 1.19 | 2.17 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.31 | 1.67 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVX's fair value at $173.09 vs the current price of $190.63, implying -9.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $173.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $126.45 (P10) to $191.01 (P90), with a median of $156.14.
CVX's current P/E of 19.6x compares to the industry median of 17.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +9.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.1x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
53 analysts cover CVX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $190.93 (range: $166.00 — $222.00), implying +0.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (33), Hold (16), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CVX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10210.0% to approximately $385. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.