MODEL VERDICT
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $713.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $717.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $735.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $731.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $725.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $611.37 | -14.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $495.77 | -30.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $479.89 | -32.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $542.05 | -24.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $465.04 | -34.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $558.66 | -21.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $839.57 | +17.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $479.51 | -32.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $490.88 | -31.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $525.74 | -26.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $539.44 | -24.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $513.03 | -28.1% | 100% | 85 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 51× | 55× (Current) | 59× | 63× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $658 | $714 | $770 | $826 | $882 |
| Conservative (14%) | $691 | $749 | $808 | $867 | $926 |
| Base Case (21.8%) | $737 | $799 | $862 | $925 | $988 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $783 | $849 | $916 | $983 | $1049 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.80 | 24.22 | 19.70 | 42.83 | 8.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.06 | 18.22 | 15.43 | 33.99 | 6.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.24 | 14.57 | 13.04 | 33.99 | 7.68 |
| P/FCF | 24.06 | 22.87 | 16.25 | 37.47 | 7.24 |
| P/FFO | 19.98 | 15.88 | 14.78 | 34.06 | 7.47 |
| P/TBV | 57.99 | 57.31 | 40.49 | 76.83 | 16.90 |
| P/AFFO | 22.92 | 18.11 | 16.75 | 39.94 | 8.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.27 | 3.42 | 2.73 | 8.19 | 1.95 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.22 | 2.52 | 2.04 | 5.93 | 1.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CW's fair value at $513.03 vs the current price of $713.14, implying -28.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $513.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $431.23 (P10) to $531.28 (P90), with a median of $481.28.
CW's current P/E of 55.4x compares to the industry median of 37.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +48.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover CW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $708.50 (range: $603.00 — $760.00), implying -0.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CW trades at the 6490th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4140.0% to approximately $418. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.