MODEL VERDICT
Dominion Energy, Inc. (D)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $63.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $62.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $62.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $62.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $64.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $82.19 | +28.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $41.98 | -34.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $94.47 | +47.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $67.65 | +5.8% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $49.41 | -22.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $36.72 | -42.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $82.18 | +28.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $74.15 | +16.0% | 100% | 75 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $54 | $61 | $68 | $75 | $83 |
| Conservative (7%) | $55 | $62 | $70 | $77 | $85 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $57 | $65 | $72 | $80 | $87 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $59 | $67 | $74 | $82 | $90 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.91 | 21.30 | 16.98 | 56.26 | 17.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.19 | 24.23 | 17.54 | 69.39 | 18.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.03 | 20.24 | 12.74 | 21.96 | 3.88 |
| P/FFO | 12.82 | 10.28 | 7.62 | 25.66 | 6.19 |
| P/TBV | 2.45 | 2.26 | 1.75 | 3.41 | 0.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.43 | 2.36 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.88 | 3.67 | 2.73 | 5.56 | 1.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates D's fair value at $74.15 vs the current price of $63.94, implying +16.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $74.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $64.77 (P10) to $86.55 (P90), with a median of $75.44.
D's current P/E of 18.5x compares to the industry median of 23.8x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -22.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.9x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
31 analysts cover D with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $66.25 (range: $64.00 — $69.00), implying +3.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (18), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that D's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1290.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.