MODEL VERDICT
Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $565.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $595.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $605.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $606.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $595.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $460.61 | -18.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $637.68 | +12.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $517.75 | -8.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $561.62 | -0.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $556.44 | -1.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $605.80 | +7.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $671.56 | +18.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $720.46 | +27.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $517.75 | -8.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $561.63 | -0.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $502.96 | -11.1% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $455 | $531 | $606 | $682 | $758 |
| Conservative (7%) | $466 | $543 | $621 | $699 | $776 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $481 | $561 | $641 | $722 | $802 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $496 | $579 | $662 | $744 | $827 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.06 | 10.37 | 5.85 | 16.78 | 4.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.29 | 7.77 | 4.36 | 12.89 | 3.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.11 | 5.81 | 3.74 | 12.63 | 3.27 |
| P/FCF | 8.74 | 7.43 | 4.29 | 15.17 | 3.56 |
| P/FFO | 7.76 | 7.25 | 4.74 | 12.61 | 2.89 |
| P/TBV | 3.00 | 3.55 | 0.99 | 4.02 | 1.33 |
| P/AFFO | 9.93 | 8.47 | 5.26 | 17.00 | 4.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.00 | 3.55 | 0.99 | 4.02 | 1.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.29 | 1.44 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DDS's fair value at $502.96 vs the current price of $565.52, implying -11.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $502.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $403.44 (P10) to $634.39 (P90), with a median of $515.92.
DDS's current P/E of 15.5x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +9.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.1x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
13 analysts cover DDS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $555.00 (range: $460.00 — $650.00), implying -1.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (6), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DDS trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DDS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1770.0% to approximately $466. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.