MODEL VERDICT
Deere & Company (DE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $577.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $562.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $590.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $576.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $605.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $379.59 | -34.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $284.24 | -50.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $425.74 | -26.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $172.58 | -70.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $402.56 | -30.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $27.54 | -95.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $367.44 | -36.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $81.87 | -85.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $202.67 | -64.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $414.54 | -28.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $165.31 | -71.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $318.88 | -44.8% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $532 | $572 | $611 | $650 | $690 |
| Conservative (11%) | $552 | $593 | $634 | $675 | $716 |
| Base Case (16.3%) | $581 | $624 | $667 | $710 | $753 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $609 | $655 | $700 | $745 | $790 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.68 | 18.06 | 11.55 | 30.96 | 6.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.29 | 17.47 | 11.22 | 24.25 | 4.09 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.86 | 15.28 | 10.46 | 19.18 | 2.74 |
| P/FCF | 46.15 | 27.50 | 17.65 | 144.16 | 48.58 |
| P/FFO | 13.69 | 13.44 | 9.65 | 17.49 | 3.07 |
| P/TBV | 7.78 | 7.79 | 6.18 | 9.98 | 1.28 |
| P/AFFO | 28.21 | 26.59 | 15.24 | 41.78 | 9.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.58 | 5.36 | 4.86 | 6.58 | 0.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.29 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 2.77 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 27 valuation metrics, the model estimates DE's fair value at $318.88 vs the current price of $577.26, implying -44.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $318.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $270.04 (P10) to $384.65 (P90), with a median of $322.01.
DE's current P/E of 31.2x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +35.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
46 analysts cover DE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $680.54 (range: $458.00 — $793.00), implying +17.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (21), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DE trades at the 6150th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4230.0% to approximately $821. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.