MODEL VERDICT
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $100.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $108.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $112.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $108.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $107.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $138.71 | +37.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $137.12 | +35.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $126.29 | +25.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $95.58 | -5.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $242.87 | +140.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $122.10 | +21.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $284.83 | +182.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $51.99 | -48.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $31.51 | -68.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $130.19 | +29.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $95.80 | -5.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $137.98 | +36.8% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $86 | $100 | $114 | $128 | $143 |
| Conservative (21%) | $92 | $107 | $122 | $137 | $153 |
| Base Case (31.7%) | $100 | $117 | $133 | $150 | $167 |
| Bull Case (43%) | $108 | $126 | $145 | $163 | $181 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.62 | 27.13 | 16.38 | 41.79 | 8.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.22 | 18.79 | 11.40 | 31.08 | 6.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.21 | 17.51 | 11.39 | 30.98 | 6.92 |
| P/FCF | 35.26 | 32.41 | 15.28 | 91.42 | 26.50 |
| P/FFO | 25.03 | 24.59 | 15.30 | 38.86 | 8.30 |
| P/TBV | 8.56 | 7.49 | 5.15 | 15.36 | 3.40 |
| P/AFFO | 28.00 | 26.62 | 16.69 | 43.64 | 9.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.27 | 7.21 | 4.83 | 15.06 | 3.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.21 | 3.86 | 2.50 | 7.40 | 1.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DECK's fair value at $137.98 vs the current price of $100.88, implying +36.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $137.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $123.54 (P10) to $166.31 (P90), with a median of $144.17.
DECK's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 20.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -20.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
54 analysts cover DECK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $121.38 (range: $90.00 — $161.00), implying +20.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (24), Hold (23), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 19.4% is 4.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (19.6%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$177. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DECK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7530.0% to approximately $177. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.