MODEL VERDICT
Denny's Corporation (DENN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $6.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $6.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $6.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $6.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $6.19 | -1.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $7.95 | +27.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $8.91 | +42.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $0.33 | -94.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $10.02 | +60.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $9.48 | +51.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $10.19 | +63.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $8.93 | +42.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $0.33 | -94.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.01 | +12.2% | 100% | 72 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (-26.4%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 |
| Bull Case (-36%) | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.91 | 14.10 | 7.49 | 31.09 | 8.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.81 | 15.35 | 8.68 | 158.00 | 54.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.45 | 12.83 | 8.93 | 55.54 | 16.46 |
| P/FCF | 75.77 | 20.44 | 9.84 | 346.75 | 133.20 |
| P/FFO | 21.26 | 11.22 | 6.26 | 80.83 | 26.56 |
| P/AFFO | 47.92 | 21.82 | 7.21 | 218.64 | 76.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.85 | 1.69 | 0.70 | 3.09 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates DENN's fair value at $7.01 vs the current price of $6.25, implying +12.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.72 (P10) to $13.20 (P90), with a median of $9.50.
DENN's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 21.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -29.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.9x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
21 analysts cover DENN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying -4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DENN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (17.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 74510.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.