Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH)
Valuation Overview•Is Dream Finders Homes, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Fragile underlying quality score of 45/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant growth concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
DFH struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.0% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 5.0%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $887.8M | -2.9% | +9.0% | +30.7% | — | |
| EBITDA | $27.7M | — | -6.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $13.3M | -35.2% | -6.1% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.11 | -33.3% | -2.7% | +20.3% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$54.8M | +55.2% | -56.2% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 16.4% | 18.6% | 18.1% | 16.5% |
| Operating Margin | 5.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% |
| Net Margin | 4.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% |
| FCF Margin | -3.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.20 | $0.11 | -45.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.62 | $0.58 | -6.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.47 | $0.47 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.65 | $0.56 | -13.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.61 | $0.54 | -11.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.13 | $1.29 | +14.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.84 | $0.70 | -16.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.77 | $0.81 | +5.2% |
Total return is -38.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -60.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -13.9% | -21.3% | — |
| 1Y | -38.7% | -60.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -13.5% | -33.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -9.3% | -20.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -3.4% | -16.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH) valuation, health, and returns.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +145.0% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $38.22)
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $38.22 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $35.71 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $38.00 (implying +157.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 45/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.3 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.2%.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. pays a 0.9% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 3.6% buyback yield.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -2.9% 1Y revenue growth and -33.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 5 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +157.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Dream Finders Homes, Inc. include: -59.4% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.52x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.52x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.