MODEL VERDICT
Digi International Inc. (DGII)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $57.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $56.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $54.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $54.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $53.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $93.43 | +62.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $50.26 | -12.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $63.57 | +10.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $69.30 | +20.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $54.36 | -5.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $66.57 | +15.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $26.43 | -54.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $65.16 | +13.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $65.96 | +14.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $69.70 | +21.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $69.25 | +20.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.66 | +17.6% | 100% | 90 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $55 | $59 | $64 | $69 | $74 |
| Conservative (20%) | $58 | $64 | $69 | $74 | $79 |
| Base Case (31.0%) | $64 | $69 | $75 | $81 | $86 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 | $93 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 56.22 | 50.63 | 38.81 | 79.26 | 15.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.60 | 36.74 | 22.89 | 70.77 | 15.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.78 | 19.85 | 13.66 | 41.02 | 9.10 |
| P/FCF | 21.79 | 16.63 | 13.83 | 36.78 | 8.99 |
| P/FFO | 21.35 | 21.67 | 16.32 | 26.26 | 3.05 |
| P/TBV | 7.78 | 6.36 | 3.07 | 13.92 | 5.56 |
| P/AFFO | 24.34 | 22.64 | 17.63 | 36.09 | 6.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.94 | 1.77 | 1.45 | 2.62 | 0.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.66 | 2.64 | 1.99 | 3.80 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DGII's fair value at $67.66 vs the current price of $57.51, implying +17.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.80 (P10) to $86.34 (P90), with a median of $67.67.
DGII's current P/E of 53.3x compares to the industry median of 58.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -9.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover DGII with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.33 (range: $46.00 — $55.00), implying -12.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 9.4% is 4.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (5.1%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$33. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DGII's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4320.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.