MODEL VERDICT
Danaher Corporation (DHR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $175.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $177.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $194.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $198.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $189.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $160.60 | -8.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $174.96 | -0.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $144.53 | -17.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $184.44 | +5.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $162.74 | -7.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $176.96 | +1.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $136.46 | -22.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $140.94 | -19.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $144.53 | -17.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $182.16 | +4.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $167.01 | -4.7% | 100% | 88 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $149 | $165 | $180 | $195 | $211 |
| Conservative (5%) | $153 | $169 | $185 | $201 | $217 |
| Base Case (0.6%) | $147 | $162 | $177 | $193 | $208 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $147 | $163 | $178 | $193 | $208 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.61 | 39.66 | 24.41 | 45.42 | 7.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.84 | 33.07 | 25.57 | 39.25 | 4.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.33 | 23.28 | 19.45 | 25.90 | 2.11 |
| P/FCF | 28.93 | 29.76 | 23.54 | 31.95 | 2.99 |
| P/FFO | 24.96 | 26.11 | 18.57 | 27.07 | 2.95 |
| P/AFFO | 30.27 | 30.99 | 21.18 | 34.83 | 4.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.54 | 3.42 | 3.10 | 4.76 | 0.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.65 | 6.63 | 5.51 | 7.30 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DHR's fair value at $167.01 vs the current price of $175.15, implying -4.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $167.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $166.28 (P10) to $188.73 (P90), with a median of $177.44.
DHR's current P/E of 34.8x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +21.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
42 analysts cover DHR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $247.00 (range: $205.00 — $270.00), implying +41.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (30), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DHR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3360.0% to approximately $234. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.