MODEL VERDICT
Diodes Incorporated (DIOD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $108.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $104.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $94.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $90.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $83.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $131.60 | +21.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $153.61 | +41.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $138.23 | +27.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $187.16 | +72.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $64.75 | -40.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $265.42 | +145.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $266.48 | +146.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $258.45 | +138.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $106.18 | -1.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $158.17 | +46.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $152.55 | +40.9% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 64× | 70× | 76× (Current) | 82× | 88× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $93 | $102 | $111 | $120 | $128 |
| Conservative (5%) | $96 | $105 | $114 | $123 | $132 |
| Base Case (-5.3%) | $87 | $95 | $103 | $111 | $119 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $85 | $93 | $101 | $109 | $117 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.27 | 21.96 | 10.57 | 64.92 | 18.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.48 | 15.49 | 8.37 | 40.68 | 11.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.20 | 11.26 | 6.31 | 16.08 | 3.34 |
| P/FCF | 29.59 | 25.47 | 16.70 | 61.67 | 15.18 |
| P/FFO | 12.55 | 11.12 | 7.64 | 17.83 | 3.56 |
| P/TBV | 2.99 | 2.58 | 1.34 | 4.92 | 1.40 |
| P/AFFO | 20.78 | 17.79 | 14.17 | 28.21 | 5.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.43 | 2.21 | 1.18 | 3.86 | 1.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.26 | 2.24 | 1.55 | 2.99 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DIOD's fair value at $152.55 vs the current price of $108.24, implying +40.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $152.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $109.17 (P10) to $155.36 (P90), with a median of $131.96.
DIOD's current P/E of 75.7x compares to the industry median of 96.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -21.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
13 analysts cover DIOD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $74.00 (range: $74.00 — $74.00), implying -31.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DIOD trades at the 6380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DIOD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1530.0% to approximately $125. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.