MODEL VERDICT
Delek Logistics Partners, LP (DKL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $53.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $50.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $49.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $48.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $49.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $51.45 | -4.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $58.97 | +9.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $56.57 | +4.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $55.35 | +2.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $60.71 | +12.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $45.47 | -15.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $55.49 | +2.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.37 | +30.4% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $40 | $47 | $54 | $61 | $67 |
| Conservative (5%) | $42 | $49 | $55 | $62 | $69 |
| Base Case (-4.6%) | $38 | $44 | $50 | $57 | $63 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $37 | $43 | $50 | $56 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.30 | 12.36 | 7.66 | 14.94 | 2.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.81 | 12.88 | 6.78 | 15.07 | 2.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.74 | 10.63 | 7.77 | 13.01 | 1.88 |
| P/FCF | 17.51 | 11.23 | 5.98 | 43.30 | 14.95 |
| P/FFO | 7.56 | 8.25 | 5.32 | 8.65 | 1.35 |
| P/AFFO | 24.87 | 14.51 | 5.69 | 97.85 | 32.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.02 | 1.91 | 1.34 | 2.65 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates DKL's fair value at $70.37 vs the current price of $53.95, implying +30.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.27 (P10) to $64.81 (P90), with a median of $53.39.
DKL's current P/E of 16.3x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -4.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
10 analysts cover DKL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $56.00 (range: $52.00 — $60.00), implying +3.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DKL trades at the 4720th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DKL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.7σ, meaning margins are 2.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3960.0% to approximately $75. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.