MODEL VERDICT
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $224.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $225.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $224.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $216.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $212.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $232.30 | +3.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $152.59 | -32.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $197.80 | -11.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $74973.74 | +33278.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $203.38 | -9.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $90642.05 | +40253.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $116.46 | -48.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $288.84 | +28.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $253.73 | +13.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $170.33 | -24.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $75739.24 | +33618.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16969.31 | +7454.7% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $198 | $219 | $240 | $261 | $282 |
| Conservative (8%) | $204 | $225 | $247 | $268 | $290 |
| Base Case (11.8%) | $212 | $234 | $256 | $279 | $301 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $220 | $243 | $266 | $289 | $312 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.19 | 12.06 | 8.29 | 19.86 | 4.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.75 | 10.96 | 7.05 | 17.17 | 3.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.92 | 9.00 | 6.15 | 11.62 | 2.25 |
| P/FCF | 15.61 | 13.43 | 0.04 | 37.26 | 12.81 |
| P/FFO | 7.08 | 7.23 | 0.02 | 12.12 | 3.68 |
| P/TBV | 4.33 | 5.38 | 0.00 | 7.12 | 2.52 |
| P/AFFO | 13.13 | 11.33 | 8.23 | 24.87 | 6.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.75 | 4.73 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 2.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 1.41 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DKS's fair value at $16969.31 vs the current price of $224.62, implying +7454.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16969.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13523.14 (P10) to $24800.23 (P90), with a median of $18651.90.
DKS's current P/E of 22.5x compares to the industry median of 19.8x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +13.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
63 analysts cover DKS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $251.43 (range: $210.00 — $300.00), implying +11.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (36), Hold (27), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (14), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DKS trades at the 3680th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DKS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2130.0% to approximately $272. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.