MODEL VERDICT
DLocal Limited (DLO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $13.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $13.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $14.33 | Below threshold | -8.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $13.84 | +13.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $13.53 | +10.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $8.91 | -27.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $9.63 | -21.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $26.44 | +116.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $11.47 | -6.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $9.12 | -25.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $9.08 | -25.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.03 | +47.3% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 28× | 31× (Current) | 34× | 37× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
| Conservative (32%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Base Case (48.9%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
| Bull Case (66%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.08 | 39.09 | 28.87 | 137.27 | 51.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 50.84 | 31.38 | 20.23 | 120.39 | 46.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.18 | 28.47 | 19.41 | 116.39 | 45.69 |
| P/FCF | 73.72 | 27.56 | 19.47 | 174.13 | 87.05 |
| P/FFO | 56.27 | 36.35 | 24.93 | 127.44 | 47.82 |
| P/TBV | 19.98 | 13.36 | 8.07 | 45.13 | 16.95 |
| P/AFFO | 101.77 | 38.78 | 25.24 | 304.27 | 135.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.98 | 11.65 | 7.03 | 37.57 | 13.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.75 | 9.62 | 4.61 | 43.13 | 17.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates DLO's fair value at $18.03 vs the current price of $12.24, implying +47.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.29 (P10) to $24.67 (P90), with a median of $17.96.
DLO's current P/E of 31.4x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +37.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 61.1x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover DLO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $15.00 — $19.00), implying +38.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DLO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (25.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17630.0% to approximately $34. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.