MODEL VERDICT
Dorchester Minerals, L.P. (DMLP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $27.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $28.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $27.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $27.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $27.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $14.24 | -49.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $17.11 | -38.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $30.71 | +9.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $33.73 | +20.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $9.14 | -67.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $20.04 | -28.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $18.51 | -33.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $16.60 | -40.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $30.48 | +9.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.42 | -30.6% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
| Conservative (9%) | $25 | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 |
| Base Case (14.5%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.64 | 13.01 | 8.93 | 18.63 | 3.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.86 | 12.37 | 8.32 | 17.86 | 3.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.00 | 8.45 | 7.25 | 10.86 | 1.27 |
| P/FCF | 9.22 | 9.60 | 7.66 | 10.51 | 1.07 |
| P/FFO | 9.32 | 9.02 | 7.51 | 11.12 | 1.24 |
| P/TBV | 5.12 | 4.87 | 3.49 | 6.65 | 1.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.12 | 4.87 | 3.49 | 6.65 | 1.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.67 | 7.54 | 6.59 | 8.63 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates DMLP's fair value at $19.42 vs the current price of $27.97, implying -30.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.31 (P10) to $26.07 (P90), with a median of $20.93.
DMLP's current P/E of 23.3x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +63.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for DMLP.
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DMLP trades at the 6830th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DMLP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (61.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 430.0% to approximately $27. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.