MODEL VERDICT
Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $112.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $111.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $110.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $106.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $109.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $95.97 | -15.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $114.79 | +1.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $181.09 | +60.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $94.96 | -15.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $111.00 | -1.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $93.97 | -16.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $312.10 | +176.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $49.27 | -56.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $46.86 | -58.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $151.27 | +34.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $95.20 | -15.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $157.41 | +39.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $93 | $106 | $119 | $132 | $145 |
| Conservative (12%) | $97 | $110 | $124 | $138 | $152 |
| Base Case (19.1%) | $102 | $117 | $132 | $146 | $161 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $108 | $124 | $139 | $154 | $170 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.02 | 22.39 | 20.34 | 29.58 | 3.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.91 | 19.52 | 15.13 | 23.03 | 3.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.55 | 15.54 | 12.16 | 18.65 | 2.51 |
| P/FCF | 123.98 | 37.65 | 15.96 | 670.40 | 241.42 |
| P/FFO | 18.40 | 18.45 | 14.30 | 22.57 | 3.21 |
| P/TBV | 5.88 | 6.22 | 3.65 | 9.20 | 1.97 |
| P/AFFO | 22.60 | 22.00 | 18.78 | 30.89 | 4.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.18 | 3.20 | 2.25 | 4.11 | 0.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.24 | 2.50 | 1.36 | 3.07 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DORM's fair value at $157.41 vs the current price of $112.88, implying +39.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $157.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $109.52 (P10) to $306.06 (P90), with a median of $167.34.
DORM's current P/E of 18.4x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -37.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover DORM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $140.00 (range: $140.00 — $140.00), implying +24.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.6% is 3.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.8%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$162. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DORM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4360.0% to approximately $162. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.