MODEL VERDICT
Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $3.90 | +41.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 15 analyst estimates | $2.14 | -22.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 24 industry peers | $19.93 | +622.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 24 industry peers | $17.00 | +515.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.71 | +107.0% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.84 | 2.15 | 1.74 | 5.34 | 1.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.57 | 1.05 | 0.86 | 3.31 | 1.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.69 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates DOUG's fair value at $5.71 vs the current price of $2.76, implying +107.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.14 (P10) to $12.56 (P90), with a median of $6.77.
DOUG's current P/E of -3.0x compares to the industry median of 44.5x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -106.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover DOUG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (11), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DOUG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.