MODEL VERDICT
Dover Corporation (DOV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $225.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $224.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $219.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $215.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $217.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $236.27 | +4.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $205.96 | -8.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $249.98 | +10.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $227.40 | +0.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $194.21 | -14.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $236.66 | +4.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $225.97 | +0.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $293.41 | +29.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $272.64 | +20.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $257.64 | +14.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $227.17 | +0.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $218.50 | -3.2% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $207 | $223 | $240 | $256 | $273 |
| Conservative (7%) | $212 | $229 | $246 | $263 | $280 |
| Base Case (11.0%) | $220 | $237 | $255 | $273 | $290 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $228 | $246 | $264 | $282 | $300 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.19 | 23.46 | 9.65 | 26.86 | 5.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.07 | 19.58 | 14.47 | 22.16 | 2.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.73 | 16.57 | 14.57 | 18.64 | 1.34 |
| P/FCF | 27.27 | 24.11 | 18.91 | 44.80 | 9.20 |
| P/FFO | 16.08 | 17.83 | 8.57 | 19.07 | 3.72 |
| P/AFFO | 18.94 | 21.23 | 9.07 | 23.04 | 4.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.78 | 4.54 | 3.64 | 6.30 | 1.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.92 | 2.81 | 2.37 | 3.36 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DOV's fair value at $218.50 vs the current price of $225.79, implying -3.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $218.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $206.95 (P10) to $236.56 (P90), with a median of $221.77.
DOV's current P/E of 28.5x compares to the industry median of 31.6x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -9.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
28 analysts cover DOV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $237.08 (range: $195.00 — $279.00), implying +5.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DOV trades at the 3750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DOV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 220.0% to approximately $221. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.