MODEL VERDICT
Dow Inc. (DOW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $40.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $38.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $35.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $38.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $39.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $58.58 | +45.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $0.09 | -99.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $73.68 | +82.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $73.79 | +83.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.88 | +13.9% | 100% | 58 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.21 | 25.56 | 6.77 | 66.88 | 24.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.70 | 18.55 | 6.30 | 37.60 | 12.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.66 | 9.16 | 5.19 | 10.68 | 2.19 |
| P/FCF | 9.78 | 9.07 | 6.75 | 14.30 | 2.83 |
| P/FFO | 21.37 | 10.80 | 4.64 | 78.85 | 26.92 |
| P/TBV | 14.53 | 4.63 | 2.06 | 55.30 | 19.86 |
| P/AFFO | 12.11 | 9.24 | 5.10 | 31.33 | 9.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.09 | 2.03 | 0.95 | 3.17 | 0.77 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.42 | 1.07 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates DOW's fair value at $45.88 vs the current price of $40.29, implying +13.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.42 (P10) to $39.99 (P90), with a median of $30.44.
DOW's current P/E of -10.9x compares to the industry median of 32.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -133.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.2x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
35 analysts cover DOW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $39.55 (range: $27.00 — $51.00), implying -1.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (19), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DOW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.