MODEL VERDICT
Draganfly Inc. (DPRO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 58 industry peers | $11.50 | +49.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 58 industry peers | $9.61 | +24.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.86 | +54.1% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 18.71 | 6.60 | 1.60 | 57.60 | 23.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.35 | 6.59 | 1.30 | 49.63 | 18.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.24 | 4.87 | 1.93 | 16.56 | 5.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates DPRO's fair value at $11.86 vs the current price of $7.70, implying +54.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.46 (P10) to $18.42 (P90), with a median of $12.20.
DPRO's current P/E of -2.4x compares to the industry median of 42.7x (38 peers in the group). This represents a -105.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover DPRO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $14.00 — $20.00), implying +133.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DPRO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.