MODEL VERDICT
Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $19.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $22.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $21.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $21.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $20.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $42.98 | +124.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $22.09 | +15.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.43 | +69.5% | 100% | 49 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.70 | 4.63 | 1.64 | 33.74 | 14.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.03 | 22.04 | 2.25 | 23.79 | 11.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.18 | 11.03 | 2.10 | 17.42 | 7.69 |
| P/FCF | 19.46 | 14.16 | 2.45 | 47.06 | 20.72 |
| P/FFO | 11.40 | 6.53 | 1.55 | 28.63 | 11.20 |
| P/TBV | 1.35 | 0.46 | 0.23 | 5.60 | 1.93 |
| P/AFFO | 22.64 | 9.44 | 4.41 | 54.06 | 27.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.30 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 5.38 | 1.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.29 | 1.84 | 0.65 | 6.37 | 1.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates DQ's fair value at $32.43 vs the current price of $19.14, implying +69.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 49/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.31 (P10) to $47.82 (P90), with a median of $34.36.
DQ's current P/E of -7.5x compares to the industry median of 21.9x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -134.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.7x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover DQ with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.56 (range: $18.13 — $19.00), implying -3.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 49/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DQ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.