MODEL VERDICT
DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $26.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $30.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $332.89 | +1143.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $473.33 | +1667.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $411.74 | +1437.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $228.89 | +754.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $124.67 | +365.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $220.61 | +723.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $877.68 | +3177.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $871.96 | +3156.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $409.95 | +1430.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $228.44 | +753.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $279.83 | +944.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $343 | $396 | $449 | $502 | $555 |
| Conservative (5%) | $354 | $408 | $462 | $517 | $571 |
| Base Case (-20.4%) | $268 | $309 | $350 | $392 | $433 |
| Bull Case (-28%) | $244 | $282 | $319 | $357 | $394 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.14 | 1.20 | 0.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.48 | 0.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.46 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 1.02 | 0.49 |
| P/FCF | 1.15 | 0.97 | 0.62 | 2.14 | 0.62 |
| P/FFO | 0.69 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 1.11 | 0.31 |
| P/TBV | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 0.07 |
| P/AFFO | 2.04 | 1.18 | 0.54 | 6.01 | 2.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.70 | 0.78 | 0.16 | 0.98 | 0.29 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.34 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DRD's fair value at $279.83 vs the current price of $26.78, implying +944.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $279.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $253.13 (P10) to $293.72 (P90), with a median of $273.04.
DRD's current P/E of 17.2x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +8.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
5 analysts cover DRD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $46.50 (range: $46.50 — $46.50), implying +73.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DRD trades at the 3700th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DRD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5200.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.