MODEL VERDICT
DiamondRock Hospitality Company (DRH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $10.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $10.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $10.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $10.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $10.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $10.49 | +0.2% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 6 REIT peers | $10.06 | -3.9% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $11.51 | +9.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $12.32 | +17.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $7.38 | -29.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $11.85 | +13.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $13.49 | +28.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $14.26 | +36.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $10.43 | -0.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.00 | +14.6% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.24 | 20.36 | 12.18 | 50.17 | 14.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.70 | 20.80 | 18.47 | 33.59 | 6.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.95 | 10.92 | 8.49 | 43.55 | 13.56 |
| P/FCF | 13.89 | 13.36 | 11.51 | 16.82 | 2.69 |
| P/FFO | 9.21 | 8.70 | 7.49 | 11.80 | 1.74 |
| P/TBV | 1.18 | 1.19 | 0.97 | 1.34 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 19.51 | 20.09 | 14.03 | 23.83 | 4.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.18 | 1.19 | 0.97 | 1.34 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.64 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 5.56 | 1.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DRH's fair value at $12.00 vs the current price of $10.47, implying +14.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.36 (P10) to $14.36 (P90), with a median of $12.27.
DRH's current P/E of 23.8x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -11.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.2x over 5 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
28 analysts cover DRH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.39 (range: $9.50 — $12.00), implying -0.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DRH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7570.0% to approximately $3. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.