MODEL VERDICT
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $194.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $201.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $201.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $199.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $192.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $220.20 | +13.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $223.52 | +14.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $222.98 | +14.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $231.51 | +18.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $249.25 | +28.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $254.42 | +30.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $171.96 | -11.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $210.32 | +8.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $222.98 | +14.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 13 industry peers | $233.50 | +19.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $241.53 | +24.0% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $166 | $184 | $203 | $221 | $240 |
| Conservative (7%) | $170 | $189 | $208 | $226 | $245 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $175 | $195 | $214 | $234 | $253 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $181 | $201 | $221 | $241 | $261 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.12 | 20.67 | 18.72 | 31.58 | 4.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.64 | 20.35 | 16.91 | 38.02 | 7.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.89 | 15.49 | 12.10 | 49.19 | 13.06 |
| P/FCF | 27.46 | 21.21 | 17.44 | 67.26 | 17.63 |
| P/FFO | 19.82 | 14.74 | 13.02 | 48.16 | 12.73 |
| P/TBV | 42.03 | 50.34 | 20.48 | 56.44 | 15.86 |
| P/AFFO | 24.47 | 24.85 | 19.35 | 27.92 | 2.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.97 | 8.12 | 5.71 | 10.06 | 1.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.97 | 1.87 | 1.61 | 2.76 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DRI's fair value at $241.53 vs the current price of $194.76, implying +24.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $241.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $196.71 (P10) to $270.61 (P90), with a median of $232.21.
DRI's current P/E of 22.0x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -12.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.1x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
59 analysts cover DRI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $225.36 (range: $200.00 — $265.00), implying +15.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (38), Hold (20), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DRI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 620.0% to approximately $207. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.