MODEL VERDICT
DarioHealth Corp. (DRIO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $35.47 | +385.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $0.84 | -88.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $1.37 | -81.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $43.08 | +490.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.67 | +265.3% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $5 | $8 | $10 | $13 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $5 | $8 | $11 | $13 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $5 | $8 | $11 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $6 | $8 | $11 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 74.44 | 71.13 | 15.74 | 136.85 | 43.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 26.54 | 16.79 | 8.32 | 60.54 | 20.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 92.00 | 47.96 | 23.50 | 224.96 | 87.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates DRIO's fair value at $26.67 vs the current price of $7.30, implying +265.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.92 (P10) to $37.58 (P90), with a median of $28.70.
DRIO's current P/E of 5.9x compares to the industry median of 28.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -79.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover DRIO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $16.00 — $16.00), implying +119.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DRIO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.