MODEL VERDICT
Dynatrace, Inc. (DT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $37.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $35.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $35.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $35.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $32.40 | -13.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 1 industry peers | $78.00 | +107.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $28.91 | -23.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $28.55 | -24.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $54.75 | +45.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $32.09 | -14.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $25.35 | -32.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $22.16 | -41.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $20.18 | -46.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $29.07 | -22.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $93.07 | +147.4% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $33 | $36 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Conservative (7%) | $34 | $37 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 | $49 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 144.90 | 147.81 | 27.26 | 232.12 | 83.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 136.10 | 135.50 | 68.08 | 189.07 | 46.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 265.04 | 94.89 | 53.69 | 1153.19 | 435.61 |
| P/FCF | 51.10 | 47.81 | 30.37 | 83.79 | 17.57 |
| P/FFO | 85.78 | 98.10 | 24.74 | 126.51 | 38.28 |
| P/TBV | 32.59 | 25.86 | 10.45 | 61.47 | 26.17 |
| P/AFFO | 98.11 | 113.09 | 26.02 | 141.03 | 44.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.83 | 9.24 | 5.02 | 15.53 | 3.59 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.23 | 13.77 | 7.75 | 24.58 | 5.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DT's fair value at $93.07 vs the current price of $37.61, implying +147.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $93.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.16 (P10) to $127.20 (P90), with a median of $77.28.
DT's current P/E of 23.7x compares to the industry median of 18.2x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +30.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 144.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
34 analysts cover DT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.81 (range: $37.00 — $64.00), implying +32.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.