MODEL VERDICT
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $52.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $58.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $61.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $63.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $78.62 | Pending | -22.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $50.48 | -3.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $49.32 | -5.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $46.98 | -9.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $56.87 | +9.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $53.50 | +2.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $49.38 | -5.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $129.52 | +148.7% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 253.49 | 199.02 | 29.87 | 586.06 | 257.80 |
| P/TBV | 58.42 | 49.77 | 13.11 | 163.09 | 52.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 18.00 | 13.96 | 8.43 | 27.84 | 8.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.37 | 10.09 | 5.27 | 26.93 | 7.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ESTC's fair value at $129.52 vs the current price of $52.07, implying +148.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $129.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.75 (P10) to $244.96 (P90), with a median of $131.91.
ESTC's current P/E of -50.1x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -291.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
34 analysts cover ESTC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $104.00 (range: $76.00 — $134.00), implying +99.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ESTC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.