MODEL VERDICT
Datadog, Inc. (DDOG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $140.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $129.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $126.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $121.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $105.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $68.48 | -51.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $6.58 | -95.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $10.38 | -92.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $74.40 | -47.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $70.77 | -49.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $54.18 | -61.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $59.53 | -57.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $10.53 | -92.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $73.18 | -47.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $417.43 | +197.0% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 394× | 431× | 468× (Current) | 505× | 542× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $123 | $134 | $146 | $158 | $169 |
| Conservative (7%) | $126 | $138 | $150 | $161 | $173 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $130 | $142 | $154 | $167 | $179 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $134 | $147 | $159 | $172 | $185 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 533.49 | 453.30 | 280.18 | 867.00 | 301.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 5208.89 | 647.62 | 245.68 | 21133.58 | 9012.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4168.53 | 1665.72 | 321.46 | 14696.27 | 5572.73 |
| P/FCF | 1071.32 | 67.24 | 49.40 | 6680.66 | 2476.11 |
| P/FFO | 8261.86 | 1090.15 | 176.27 | 25100.06 | 11863.42 |
| P/TBV | 28.36 | 22.17 | 6.85 | 75.06 | 22.02 |
| P/AFFO | 375.85 | 406.28 | 200.17 | 521.11 | 162.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 22.86 | 18.88 | 6.75 | 52.87 | 15.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 26.34 | 19.09 | 13.84 | 53.50 | 17.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates DDOG's fair value at $417.43 vs the current price of $140.53, implying +197.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $417.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.32 (P10) to $1546.61 (P90), with a median of $417.87.
DDOG's current P/E of 468.4x compares to the industry median of 34.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +1254.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 533.5x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
47 analysts cover DDOG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $174.63 (range: $113.00 — $215.00), implying +24.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (40), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DDOG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.