MODEL VERDICT
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $101.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $112.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $112.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $120.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $176.66 | Below threshold | -32.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $71 | $87 | $102 | $118 | $134 |
| Conservative (7%) | $73 | $89 | $105 | $121 | $137 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $75 | $92 | $108 | $125 | $142 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $77 | $95 | $112 | $129 | $146 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 281.25 | 172.46 | 23.15 | 648.14 | 326.39 |
| P/FCF | 391.47 | 69.96 | 55.86 | 1370.12 | 652.48 |
| P/TBV | 11.10 | 7.99 | 5.30 | 19.23 | 6.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.76 | 7.92 | 5.18 | 18.52 | 6.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.02 | 18.03 | 7.60 | 20.42 | 5.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 1 valuation metrics, the model estimates DUOL's fair value at $87.65 vs the current price of $101.00, implying -13.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $87.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
DUOL's current P/E of 13.3x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -49.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 281.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover DUOL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $235.00 (range: $100.00 — $330.00), implying +132.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DUOL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.