MODEL VERDICT
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $111.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $103.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $100.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $98.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $90.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $41.55 | -62.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $50.29 | -54.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $133.78 | +20.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $100.63 | -9.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $56.73 | -49.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $110.22 | -0.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $60.01 | -46.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $38.23 | -65.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $129.07 | +16.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $95.57 | -14.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $487.98 | +338.6% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $87 | $102 | $118 | $134 | $150 |
| Conservative (7%) | $89 | $105 | $121 | $137 | $153 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $92 | $108 | $125 | $142 | $158 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $95 | $112 | $129 | $146 | $163 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 281.25 | 172.46 | 23.15 | 648.14 | 326.39 |
| P/FCF | 391.47 | 69.96 | 55.86 | 1370.12 | 652.48 |
| P/TBV | 11.10 | 7.99 | 5.30 | 19.23 | 6.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.76 | 7.92 | 5.18 | 18.52 | 6.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.02 | 18.03 | 7.60 | 20.42 | 5.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates DUOL's fair value at $487.98 vs the current price of $111.25, implying +338.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $487.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $122.52 (P10) to $1000.19 (P90), with a median of $471.28.
DUOL's current P/E of 14.7x compares to the industry median of 17.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -16.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 281.3x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
22 analysts cover DUOL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $220.56 (range: $85.00 — $330.00), implying +98.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DUOL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.