MODEL VERDICT
DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. (DV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $11.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $9.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $9.27 | -18.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $15.21 | +34.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $8.51 | -24.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $15.89 | +40.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $11.50 | +1.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $16.49 | +45.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $10.24 | -9.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $13.26 | +17.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $13.36 | +18.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $8.56 | -24.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $15.27 | +35.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.02 | +85.8% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (12%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Base Case (18.2%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 92.12 | 87.84 | 38.13 | 184.89 | 56.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 87.47 | 61.33 | 35.17 | 192.06 | 70.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.09 | 38.20 | 12.87 | 91.00 | 29.99 |
| P/FCF | 48.10 | 62.09 | 11.04 | 73.63 | 28.05 |
| P/FFO | 49.33 | 48.32 | 17.78 | 90.64 | 27.48 |
| P/TBV | 10.09 | 9.41 | 3.71 | 18.30 | 5.73 |
| P/AFFO | 69.44 | 66.91 | 27.76 | 107.60 | 34.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.35 | 4.28 | 1.69 | 6.76 | 2.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.67 | 8.29 | 2.55 | 16.23 | 5.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DV's fair value at $21.02 vs the current price of $11.31, implying +85.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.55 (P10) to $24.62 (P90), with a median of $19.89.
DV's current P/E of 37.7x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +32.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 92.1x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover DV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.10 (range: $12.00 — $17.00), implying +33.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (9.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 24590.0% to approximately $39. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.