MODEL VERDICT
DaVita Inc. (DVA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $151.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $151.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $147.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $144.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $150.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $254.81 | +68.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $247.93 | +63.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $216.20 | +42.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $319.51 | +110.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $187.66 | +23.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $242.86 | +60.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $140.70 | -7.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $88.40 | -41.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $216.74 | +42.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $217.72 | +43.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $320.71 | +111.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $226.55 | +49.4% | 100% | 92 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $121 | $140 | $159 | $177 | $196 |
| Conservative (5%) | $124 | $143 | $162 | $181 | $200 |
| Base Case (7.3%) | $127 | $146 | $165 | $185 | $204 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $129 | $149 | $169 | $189 | $209 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.15 | 13.94 | 12.53 | 18.37 | 1.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.43 | 13.19 | 12.16 | 15.57 | 1.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.35 | 9.04 | 8.64 | 10.87 | 0.78 |
| P/FCF | 8.59 | 8.84 | 6.55 | 11.04 | 1.51 |
| P/FFO | 7.56 | 7.54 | 5.53 | 10.25 | 1.46 |
| P/AFFO | 13.46 | 11.81 | 10.38 | 19.73 | 3.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.03 | 4.97 | 3.22 | 8.64 | 1.96 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.93 | 1.01 | 0.62 | 1.25 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DVA's fair value at $226.55 vs the current price of $151.65, implying +49.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $226.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $178.00 (P10) to $244.48 (P90), with a median of $210.27.
DVA's current P/E of 16.7x compares to the industry median of 23.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -29.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
23 analysts cover DVA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $168.67 (range: $158.00 — $190.00), implying +11.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DVA trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DVA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 140.0% to approximately $154. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.