Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$156.30
→
Intrinsic$200.32
+28%
$85.12$200.32$419.16
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
DVA shows 28% potential upside using 15% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $156, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (15%).
Range: Bear $85 → Bull $419. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 11% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $275 | $313 | $353 | $396 |
| 10% | $147 | $173 | $200 | $230 |
| 12% | $76 | $95 | $116 | $138 |
| 14% | $30 | $46 | $62 | $79 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($419) offers 168% upside at 18% growth, 9% discount
- 22% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (12%) ≤ historical CAGR (15%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($85) implies 46% downside at 12% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.51B
Year 2$1.74B
Year 3$2.01B
Year 4$2.31B
Year 5$2.67B
Terminal$39.27B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate15.3%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.31BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.