MODEL VERDICT
DXP Enterprises, Inc. (DXPE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $168.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $169.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $159.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $151.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $153.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $174.83 | +3.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $189.90 | +12.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $170.63 | +1.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $102.45 | -39.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $277.57 | +64.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $117.05 | -30.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $315.08 | +86.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $292.16 | +73.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $171.12 | +1.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $101.90 | -39.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $182.05 | +7.8% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $145 | $162 | $178 | $195 | $212 |
| Conservative (7%) | $148 | $166 | $183 | $200 | $217 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $153 | $171 | $189 | $206 | $224 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $158 | $176 | $195 | $213 | $231 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.45 | 19.74 | 8.66 | 30.93 | 7.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.08 | 12.81 | 7.14 | 20.75 | 5.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.66 | 10.63 | 5.92 | 12.47 | 2.41 |
| P/FCF | 94.95 | 17.89 | 3.91 | 548.49 | 200.40 |
| P/FFO | 13.24 | 11.72 | 6.03 | 29.67 | 8.55 |
| P/AFFO | 25.27 | 15.50 | 6.89 | 87.93 | 31.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.08 | 1.57 | 1.09 | 3.62 | 0.99 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 0.89 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DXPE's fair value at $182.05 vs the current price of $168.90, implying +7.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $182.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $144.71 (P10) to $234.02 (P90), with a median of $172.58.
DXPE's current P/E of 31.5x compares to the industry median of 31.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -1.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.5x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover DXPE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $154.00 (range: $154.00 — $154.00), implying -8.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 4.4% is 4.6 percentage points above the 6-year average (4.2%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$94. (2) Multiple compression: DXPE trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.5×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DXPE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4450.0% to approximately $94. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.