MODEL VERDICT
Eni S.p.A. (E)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $56.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $54.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $52.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $54.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $56.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $52.75 | -6.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $34.13 | -39.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $29.10 | -48.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $37.33 | -33.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $34.32 | -38.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $26.04 | -53.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $55.48 | -1.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $50.43 | -10.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $29.26 | -47.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $37.05 | -34.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.88 | -21.9% | 100% | 80 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $41 | $45 | $50 | $55 | $59 |
| Conservative (7%) | $42 | $46 | $51 | $56 | $61 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $43 | $48 | $53 | $58 | $63 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $44 | $49 | $54 | $60 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 73.69 | 14.41 | 3.63 | 375.73 | 148.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.69 | 4.79 | 2.29 | 15.50 | 4.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.55 | 5.53 | 2.90 | 15.90 | 4.33 |
| P/FCF | 35.82 | 9.58 | 5.32 | 193.67 | 69.68 |
| P/FFO | 4.67 | 4.47 | 2.37 | 6.74 | 1.58 |
| P/TBV | 1.08 | 1.11 | 0.87 | 1.24 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 25.73 | 16.11 | 2.46 | 83.78 | 33.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.97 | 1.03 | 0.79 | 1.11 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 0.84 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates E's fair value at $43.88 vs the current price of $56.16, implying -21.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.20 (P10) to $76.68 (P90), with a median of $52.18.
E's current P/E of 31.9x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +64.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 73.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover E with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $64.30 (range: $64.30 — $64.30), implying +14.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that E's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 74410.0% to approximately $474. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.