MODEL VERDICT
Eni S.p.A. (E) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $46.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $44.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $43.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $42.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $37.32 | Below threshold | +14.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $38.75 | -17.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $29.03 | -38.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $25.40 | -45.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $42.93 | -8.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $17.02 | -63.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $29.43 | -37.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $51.63 | +10.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $66.38 | +41.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $60.22 | +28.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $25.81 | -45.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $44.64 | -4.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.79 | +12.5% | 100% | 73 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (33%) | $44 | $48 | $52 | $57 | $61 |
| Conservative (53%) | $50 | $55 | $60 | $65 | $70 |
| Base Case (81.9%) | $60 | $66 | $72 | $78 | $84 |
| Bull Case (111%) | $69 | $76 | $83 | $90 | $97 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 71.77 | 12.98 | 3.63 | 375.73 | 148.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.92 | 4.73 | 2.29 | 8.43 | 1.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.16 | 5.06 | 2.90 | 15.90 | 4.41 |
| P/FCF | 35.73 | 9.58 | 5.32 | 193.67 | 69.71 |
| P/FFO | 4.50 | 4.47 | 2.37 | 6.74 | 1.44 |
| P/TBV | 1.07 | 1.11 | 0.87 | 1.24 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 14.67 | 16.11 | 2.46 | 28.45 | 10.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.97 | 1.03 | 0.79 | 1.11 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 0.84 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 27 valuation metrics, the model estimates E's fair value at $52.79 vs the current price of $46.94, implying +12.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.17 (P10) to $76.14 (P90), with a median of $49.40.
E's current P/E of 24.3x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +56.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 71.8x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover E with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $34.60 (range: $34.60 — $34.60), implying -26.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that E's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (15.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 113440.0% to approximately $579. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.