MODEL VERDICT
Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 1M BD 4.875%66 (EAI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $402.51 | +1851.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $1427.32 | +6818.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $211.09 | +923.2% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $995.92 | +4727.5% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $898.32 | +4254.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $1050.37 | +4991.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $402.51 | +1851.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $639.06 | +2997.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 5× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $88 | $88 | $88 | $88 | $110 |
| Conservative (19%) | $93 | $93 | $93 | $93 | $117 |
| Base Case (29.7%) | $102 | $102 | $102 | $102 | $127 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $110 | $110 | $110 | $110 | $137 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.65 | 4.08 | 1.12 | 5.40 | 1.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.51 | 12.10 | 2.42 | 94.34 | 31.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.02 | 6.29 | 1.37 | 9.96 | 2.52 |
| P/FFO | 1.46 | 1.64 | 0.38 | 2.00 | 0.56 |
| P/TBV | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 0.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.41 | 0.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.38 | 0.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.10 | 0.64 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates EAI's fair value at $639.06 vs the current price of $20.63, implying +2997.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $639.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $484.59 (P10) to $684.59 (P90), with a median of $575.71.
EAI's current P/E of 1.1x compares to the industry median of 20.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -94.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 3.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for EAI.
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 17.7% is 5.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.1%), with a Z-score of +2.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$49. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EAI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.9σ, meaning margins are 2.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13570.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.