MODEL VERDICT
Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. (ECC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $3.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $8.24 | +95.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $8.96 | +112.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $8.96 | +112.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $88.09 | +1987.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $8.24 | +95.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $8.79 | +108.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.44 | +242.2% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $4 | $4 | $6 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.29 | 5.41 | 3.99 | 10.33 | 2.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.61 | 6.56 | 4.95 | 12.39 | 3.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.61 | 6.56 | 4.95 | 12.39 | 3.28 |
| P/FCF | 62.13 | 12.32 | 7.49 | 267.32 | 114.75 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 1.38 | 0.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 1.38 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 14.27 | 4.68 | 3.38 | 51.73 | 20.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ECC's fair value at $14.44 vs the current price of $4.22, implying +242.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.87 (P10) to $9.19 (P90), with a median of $8.51.
ECC's current P/E of 4.9x compares to the industry median of 9.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -48.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.3x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover ECC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.75 (range: $4.50 — $5.00), implying +12.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ECC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (80.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4860.0% to approximately $6. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.