MODEL VERDICT
Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. (ECCC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $24.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $24.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $24.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $24.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $24.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $8.13 | -66.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $8.71 | -64.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $8.71 | -64.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $17.79 | -27.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $8.13 | -66.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.07 | -50.5% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Conservative (7%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $27 | $29 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $23 | $25 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.41 | 12.40 | 7.21 | 26.63 | 10.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.34 | 13.14 | 8.16 | 27.70 | 10.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.34 | 13.14 | 8.16 | 27.70 | 10.15 |
| P/FCF | 19.98 | 20.65 | 17.01 | 22.26 | 2.69 |
| P/TBV | 1.99 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 2.28 | 0.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.99 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 2.28 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.73 | 10.63 | 6.11 | 18.44 | 6.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ECCC's fair value at $12.07 vs the current price of $24.38, implying -50.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.29 (P10) to $15.62 (P90), with a median of $13.21.
ECCC's current P/E of 28.3x compares to the industry median of 9.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +200.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.4x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
6 analysts cover ECCC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ECCC trades at the 7630th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ECCC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (80.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3690.0% to approximately $15. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.