MODEL VERDICT
Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $149.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $136.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $128.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $128.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $130.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $155.76 | +4.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $174.87 | +17.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $216.25 | +45.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $79.27 | -46.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $204.90 | +37.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $80.34 | -46.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $182.05 | +22.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $173.39 | +16.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $216.25 | +45.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $79.27 | -46.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $156.05 | +4.6% | 100% | 65 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $131 | $144 | $156 | $168 | $181 |
| Conservative (7%) | $135 | $147 | $160 | $172 | $185 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $139 | $152 | $165 | $178 | $191 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $143 | $157 | $170 | $184 | $197 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ECG's fair value at $156.05 vs the current price of $149.14, implying +4.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $156.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $141.30 (P10) to $175.75 (P90), with a median of $158.23.
ECG's current P/E of 37.8x compares to the industry median of 54.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -31.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover ECG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $129.33 (range: $102.00 — $160.00), implying -13.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ECG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2480.0% to approximately $186. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.