MODEL VERDICT
Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $110.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $109.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $110.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $110.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $113.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $132.54 | +20.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $283.18 | +156.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $110.24 | -0.2% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $119.45 | +8.1% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $170.38 | +54.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $261.86 | +137.0% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $208.83 | +89.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $352.38 | +218.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $132.54 | +20.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $181.03 | +63.8% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $94 | $106 | $118 | $130 | $142 |
| Conservative (7%) | $97 | $109 | $121 | $133 | $145 |
| Base Case (11.5%) | $101 | $113 | $126 | $138 | $151 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $104 | $117 | $130 | $143 | $156 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.15 | 20.41 | 12.62 | 22.17 | 3.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.94 | 18.72 | 13.79 | 23.15 | 3.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.03 | 11.76 | 6.84 | 12.81 | 1.98 |
| P/FFO | 8.40 | 8.20 | 6.98 | 9.85 | 0.94 |
| P/TBV | 1.57 | 1.53 | 1.41 | 1.84 | 0.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.27 | 1.64 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.14 | 2.16 | 1.98 | 2.38 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ED's fair value at $181.03 vs the current price of $110.49, implying +63.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $181.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $154.30 (P10) to $201.28 (P90), with a median of $171.64.
ED's current P/E of 19.6x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -16.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
27 analysts cover ED with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $108.78 (range: $97.00 — $118.00), implying -1.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (17), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ED trades at the 4900th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ED's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 750.0% to approximately $102. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.