MODEL VERDICT
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $53.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $51.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $59.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $55.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $56.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $59.40 | +10.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $45.03 | -16.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $35.46 | -34.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $48.37 | -10.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $50.64 | -5.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $50.17 | -6.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $47.91 | -11.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $38.04 | -29.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $34.87 | -35.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $47.68 | -11.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.34 | +23.3% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $45 | $49 | $54 | $59 | $63 |
| Conservative (5%) | $46 | $51 | $56 | $60 | $65 |
| Base Case (-2.4%) | $43 | $47 | $52 | $56 | $61 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $42 | $47 | $51 | $56 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.28 | 53.56 | 10.50 | 80.83 | 29.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.20 | 42.95 | 12.49 | 61.54 | 22.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.46 | 28.74 | 11.57 | 55.12 | 17.15 |
| P/FCF | 23.84 | 14.45 | 5.00 | 59.90 | 20.56 |
| P/FFO | 33.17 | 33.45 | 6.14 | 54.81 | 19.52 |
| P/TBV | 4.19 | 2.73 | 0.70 | 10.69 | 3.69 |
| P/AFFO | 96.87 | 71.42 | 27.05 | 257.36 | 84.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.05 | 2.65 | 0.69 | 10.33 | 3.55 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.66 | 2.48 | 0.81 | 8.28 | 2.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EDU's fair value at $66.34 vs the current price of $53.82, implying +23.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.39 (P10) to $79.60 (P90), with a median of $66.47.
EDU's current P/E of 23.4x compares to the industry median of 15.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +51.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 49.3x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover EDU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.00 (range: $68.00 — $68.00), implying +26.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EDU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (1.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6340.0% to approximately $20. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.