MODEL VERDICT
Equifax Inc. (EFX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $173.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $172.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $196.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $186.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $177.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $195.63 | +12.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $216.73 | +24.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $157.10 | -9.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $202.06 | +16.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $150.70 | -13.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $205.30 | +18.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $76.56 | -56.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $370.17 | +112.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $369.28 | +112.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $157.76 | -9.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $202.45 | +16.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2253.64 | +1196.3% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $147 | $163 | $179 | $195 | $212 |
| Conservative (5%) | $151 | $168 | $184 | $201 | $218 |
| Base Case (4.6%) | $150 | $167 | $184 | $200 | $217 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $153 | $170 | $187 | $204 | $221 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.36 | 47.06 | 34.40 | 56.20 | 7.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.96 | 33.59 | 26.48 | 37.69 | 4.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1516.47 | 23.26 | 17.55 | 10485.16 | 3954.82 |
| P/FCF | 64.99 | 43.46 | 23.74 | 180.73 | 57.84 |
| P/FFO | 24.10 | 25.27 | 18.95 | 29.33 | 4.07 |
| P/AFFO | 42.96 | 44.24 | 29.97 | 54.34 | 8.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.94 | 6.47 | 5.68 | 10.05 | 1.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.49 | 5.60 | 4.43 | 7.35 | 0.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EFX's fair value at $2253.64 vs the current price of $173.85, implying +1196.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2253.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $199.50 (P10) to $9943.85 (P90), with a median of $2416.60.
EFX's current P/E of 32.7x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +10.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.4x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
34 analysts cover EFX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $227.60 (range: $195.00 — $265.00), implying +30.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EFX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (15.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10060.0% to approximately $349. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.