MODEL VERDICT
Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (EGBN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $26.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $26.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $26.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $50.91 | +94.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $53.29 | +103.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $18.14 | -30.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $16.16 | -38.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.00 | +41.6% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.29 | 10.10 | 9.11 | 11.63 | 0.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.77 | 10.11 | 1.13 | 13.26 | 5.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.58 | 9.80 | 1.10 | 12.91 | 5.43 |
| P/FCF | 11.52 | 8.01 | 4.68 | 31.20 | 9.07 |
| P/FFO | 9.95 | 9.80 | 8.81 | 11.16 | 0.85 |
| P/TBV | 1.07 | 1.18 | 0.57 | 1.53 | 0.40 |
| P/AFFO | 10.13 | 9.98 | 8.81 | 11.37 | 0.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.99 | 1.08 | 0.57 | 1.40 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.58 | 3.07 | 1.02 | 4.61 | 1.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates EGBN's fair value at $37.00 vs the current price of $26.13, implying +41.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.48 (P10) to $43.23 (P90), with a median of $38.28.
EGBN's current P/E of -6.2x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -146.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.3x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover EGBN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.67 (range: $25.00 — $32.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EGBN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.