Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO)
Valuation Overview•Is Eldorado Gold Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Moderate quality score of 70/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
EGO demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (28.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 40.0% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $586.0M | +39.9% | +28.5% | +12.5% | +7.9% | |
| EBITDA | $341.4M | — | +54.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $244.5M | +78.5% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.22 | +78.0% | — | +27.0% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $165K | -886.4% | -21.5% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 46.4% | 42.7% | 35.8% | 32.3% |
| Operating Margin | 40.0% | 30.4% | 23.8% | 7.0% |
| Net Margin | 28.0% | 20.0% | 1.0% | -13.1% |
| FCF Margin | -10.1% | -3.9% | -3.1% | -17.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.69 | $0.95 | +37.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.60 | $0.63 | +5.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.49 | $0.41 | -16.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.51 | $0.44 | -13.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.32 | $0.28 | -12.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.49 | $0.62 | +26.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.34 | $0.35 | +2.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.25 | $0.33 | +32.0% |
Total return is +58.6% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +33.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -6.3% | -15.6% | — |
| 1Y | +58.6% | +33.6% | +0.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +50.0% | +32.1% | +1.5% |
| 5YCAGR | +26.5% | +13.9% | +1.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +4.7% | -8.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) valuation, health, and returns.
Eldorado Gold Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +104.9% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $67.72)
Eldorado Gold Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $67.72 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $33.72 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $52.67 (implying +59.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Eldorado Gold Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 70/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 13.3%.
Eldorado Gold Corporation returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 3.3% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -0.1% in the last 12 months.
Eldorado Gold Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +39.9% 1Y revenue growth and +78.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +28.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 24 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +59.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Eldorado Gold Corporation include: -43.8% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.55x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.55x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.